18 June 2019
The secular re-rating of the Indonesian sovereign over the last two decades has been nothing short of spectacular.
10 June 2019
Since the great financial crisis roughly 10 years ago, investors are conditioned to expect the unexpected, but as long-term value investors, we at Western Asset still firmly believe that ultimately, macroeconomic fundamentals prevail and are the key determinant of valuations.
04 June 2019
03 June 2019
The decline in oil prices has been a catalyst for fueling a surge in debt issuance in the Middle East in recent years. As background, the Arab Spring earlier this decade prompted an increase in government spending by the six-member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
31 May 2019
Last night, President Trump announced via Twitter that on June 10 the US would impose a 5% tariff (with the potential for further increases) on all goods coming into the US from Mexico until the “illegal migrants” transiting through Mexico into the US are stopped.
30 May 2019
28 May 2019
21 May 2019
Western Asset recently cut our 2019 GDP growth outlook for Brazil to 1.3% from 1.9%. The move came on the back of weaker-than-expected data for 1Q19, and underscores the frustratingly sub-par pace of expansion over the last three years.
17 May 2019
Last week the US again increased tariffs on certain Chinese imports. This was the third round of tariffs on Chinese imports in the last 18 months, following announcements in 2018 of 20% tariffs on Chinese washing machines and solar panels, and 10% tariffs on $200 billion of select imports.
15 May 2019
Emerging markets debt is a growing and diverse asset class that allows participants to invest in over 70 different countries globally. While this breadth presents investors with opportunities for both diversification and yield enhancement in their portfolios, it also comes with potential credit risk and information asymmetry.
10 May 2019
About a year and a half ago, investors started to get concerned about the significant growth in BBB rated debt issues, which represent the lowest rung of investment-grade (IG) credit. Today, BBBs comprise nearly 50% of the IG market, which has more than doubled since the financial crisis 10 years ago.
29 April 2019
General elections in India officially kicked off on April 11 and will stretch out over six weeks in seven rounds of voting, with results expected to be announced on May 23. All 543 elected Members of Parliament (MPs) will be elected from single-member constituencies using the “first-pass-the-post” electoral system.
25 April 2019
24 April 2019
Broadly, we consider current mortgage loan quality within the Australian banking sector to be at historically high levels, and arrears near cyclical lows. The most recent data includes reporting by the banks, plus Standard & Poor’s RMBS Performance Watch as of December 31, 2018.
23 April 2019
In a surprising and possibly precedent-setting decision in January, a ruling was made that Puerto Rico did not have to pay the special revenue bonds issued by its Highways and Transportation Authority.
17 April 2019
This week’s 1Q19 GDP report for China showed that the economy grew 6.4% year-over-year, the same pace as the previous quarter and matching the post-Lehman low in 1Q09. Nonetheless, the outcome surprised on the upside (consensus 6.3%).
16 April 2019
The Republic of Indonesia goes to the polls on Wednesday, April 17, to elect a President, Vice President and Members of Parliament. Indonesians based overseas have already voted in droves at foreign voting centers, but on Wednesday 193 million Indonesians will cast their ballots in more than 80,000 polling stations spread across this vast archipelago of 17,000 islands.
12 April 2019
Last year, the Fed spent a lot of time and effort arguing that it needed to raise interest rates to get them back to “neutral” levels, to where they were no longer stimulating the economy. While stock market and global growth concerns have put this issue on the back burner, it is sure to resurface again soon.
11 April 2019
Herman Cain clearly has President Trump’s confidence, but it’s yet to be seen whether a more skeptical Senate will vote for his confirmation to the Federal Reserve Board (the Fed Board). The prospects for Mr. Cain’s confirmation are in constant flux.
10 April 2019
Western Asset firmly believes that a strong risk management culture is fundamental to a successful investment management record. As Benjamin Graham once said, “the essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.”
03 April 2019
So this is what happens when you leave it to UK Parliament to decide! With the government repeatedly failing to secure a majority for the Brexit deal it agreed to with the EU, on Monday Parliament “took control” of the political agenda to try and find common ground on the way forward.
01 April 2019
Discussions about an inverted yield curve—and whether it portends a recession—are back in the spotlight. Of particular interest is the spread between 3-month T-bills and 10-year USTs, as this curve went negative on March 23.
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