skip navigation
Blog

Stay up to date on timely topics and market events. Subscribe to our Blog now.

MARKETS
August 31, 2020

Breakeven Forecasting for Prime Money Market Funds

By Jason Straker

Stay up to date on timely topics and market events. Subscribe to our Blog now.

When evaluating a money market fund, investors tend to look at characteristics that help them judge the attractiveness of a fund (e.g., cut-off time, yields and returns), including risk (e.g., weighted average maturity and life) and even the liquidity (e.g., size of the fund), but one factor often overlooked is the Net Asset Value per share, or NAV. For government and Treasury funds, and also retail prime and municipal styles of money market funds, the NAV per share remains constant at $1.00. However, there is also a “shadow” NAV that fund managers publish so that investors can track the market value of the underlying fund portfolio without impacting the value of an investor’s share position, which remains stable at $1.00.

Conversely, for Floating Net Asset Value (FNAV) institutional prime or municipal money market funds, shares are priced to four decimal places (i.e., $1.0000) and may fluctuate in small movements above and below the $1.0000 mark. For these funds, the NAV has a much more elevated role, as it can directly impact the total return of a fund investment. It should therefore be an integral component of the prime money market fund decision-making process. Although an additional step, the consideration of the NAV should not in isolation be enough to walk away from the yield advantage that institutional FNAV prime money market funds may offer. By carefully considering the simple relationship between NAV movements and yield, a suitable breakeven investment period can be calculated to help avoid breaking the key objective for all money market fund investors—the preservation of principle.

Exhibit 1: Calculation for Breakeven Investment Period
Explore Calculation for Breakeven Investment Period.
Source: Western Asset. As of 26 Aug 20. Select the image to expand the view.

Using the calculation in Exhibit 1 you can see that the breakeven period becomes longer as yields fall, and it becomes longer as the expected future drop in NAV increases.

Exhibit 2: Relationship Between Yield, NAV Decline and Breakeven Period
Explore Relationship Between Yield, NAV Decline and Breakeven Period .
Source Western Asset. As of 26 Aug 20. Select the image to expand the view.

Both of the considerations of yield and NAV movements are particularly heightened in today’s market environment. First, yields have been falling considerably as the world’s central banks have cut interest rates in reaction to the economic crisis brought about by COVID-19. As yields have fallen, the amount of potential income from prime money market funds available to offset the loss from a drop in NAV has decreased.

Similarly, as the economy initially recoiled from crisis then subsequently began to heal when accommodative central bank monetary policies took effect, bond yields rose and fell while credit spreads widened then tightened, respectively, considerably increasing the volatility of the market value of securities and therefore also the NAVs of institutional prime money market funds.

Exhibit 3: Average NAV and 7-Day Yield of Institutional Prime Money Market Funds
Explore Average NAV and 7-Day Yield of Institutional Prime Money Market Funds.
Source: Crane Data. Arithmetic average taken of the Institutional share class or equivalent of Institutional Prime Money Market Funds. As of 26 Aug 20. Select the image to expand the view.

Using the information presented here, investors can apply a rational and methodical approach to evaluating the NAV of prime money market funds in order to make a suitable investment decision based on their expected investment horizon. Although the yield advantage between prime and government style money market funds has come down in recent months, the potential for greater returns still remains as long as an adequate investment period can be forecast.

Overall, we believe investors should consider institutional FNAV prime funds as a useful component of their liquidity portfolios. Investors may benefit from taking a slightly longer investment horizon than offered by Constant NAV (CNAV) government funds, given the potential for relatively higher yields combined with periodic NAV fluctuations.

© Western Asset Management Company, LLC 2023. This publication is the property of Western Asset and is intended for the sole use of its clients, consultants, and other intended recipients. It should not be forwarded to any other person. Contents herein should be treated as confidential and proprietary information. This material may not be reproduced or used in any form or medium without express written permission.
Past results are not indicative of future investment results. This publication is for informational purposes only and reflects the current opinions of Western Asset. Information contained herein is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Opinions represented are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security and are subject to change without notice. Statements in this material should not be considered investment advice. Employees and/or clients of Western Asset may have a position in the securities mentioned. This publication has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this information, you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is your responsibility to be aware of and observe the applicable laws and regulations of your country of residence.
Western Asset Management Company Distribuidora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários Limitada is authorized and regulated by Comissão de Valores Mobiliários and Brazilian Central Bank. Western Asset Management Company Pty Ltd ABN 41 117 767 923 is the holder of the Australian Financial Services Licence 303160. Western Asset Management Company Pte. Ltd. Co. Reg. No. 200007692R is a holder of a Capital Markets Services Licence for fund management and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Western Asset Management Company Ltd is a registered Financial Instruments Business Operator and regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan. Western Asset Management Company Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) (FRN 145930). This communication is intended for distribution to Professional Clients only if deemed to be a financial promotion in the UK as defined by the FCA. This communication may also be intended for certain EEA countries where Western Asset has been granted permission to do so. For the current list of the approved EEA countries please contact Western Asset at +44 (0)20 7422 3000.