skip navigation

CIO Ken Leech

1Q20 Market & Strategy Update

Ken Leech
Chief Investment Officer


Looking back to this time last year, the general market consensus called for multiple rate hikes and a continuation of monetary policy tightening. But we weren’t so sure of that in light of our view that both growth and inflation would remain moderate. Then, in July, the Federal Reserve (Fed) surprised markets with a significant pivot when it announced what would be the first of three consecutive rate cuts. This helped to propel the big bull market that is still charging ahead today. The Fed’s overt focus on inflation outcomes suggests rates will remain “low for long.” Given this backdrop and the continued easing by global central banks, we think global growth should improve, spread products should outperform government bonds and, although volatile, EM should also outperform.

Market Review

  • The Fed moved to directly target inflation, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that he will stay the course with easy policy until he sees “sustained inflation” above the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Central banks around the world returned to rate cutting in 2019.
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) made a new commitment to lifting inflation and simultaneously downgraded its inflation outlook; ECB President Mario Draghi stepped down.
  • Global growth slowed as trade levels declined along with manufacturing activity; US-China trade tensions were a big part of the problem.
  • US inflation has remained low, even as unemployment has continued to improve to record levels.

US Economic Outlook

  • The US economy remains solid; this year we expect 2% growth, but inflation will remain tame.
  • We believe that we are in a low-inflation environment, which is likely to persist and implies a low probability of rate hikes this year.

Global Economic Outlook

  • Global growth should rise, albeit from a low base, as the downside risks to global growth have receded.
  • Debt loads and challenged demographics continue to be headwinds to global growth.
  • Europe: The trajectory of growth appears to be improving; we believe the worst is over. The outcome for Brexit looks to be very positive given the pro-business UK government.
  • Japan: We think the Bank of Japan is likely to remain accommodative unless inflation were to rise above target for a prolonged period.
  • China: The completion of the US-China “phase one” trade deal appears very encouraging. We view it as essentially a truce that has come to fruition and think the resulting reduction in uncertainty should be very positive moving forward.

Investment Themes

  • Central bank policy wins the battles, but the wars are won by the fundamentals, which are the growth and inflation outlook over long periods of time.
  • US credit markets offer both attractive yield and size relative to other mature markets and continue to be very attractive to the global investor in search of “safe” yield.
  • Year-to-date, spread sectors have recovered from last year’s dramatic selloff.
  • Investment-grade: Sector and security selection are key at tighter valuations in 2020; we continue to focus on industries that are deleveraging. BBBs were the place to be in 2019 despite downgrade fears; management teams of the largest issuers in 2020 continue to focus on lowering or at least maintaining their leverage levels.
  • High-yield: Bank loans lagged the broader high-yield rally for most of 2019 leaving upside opportunity and attractive yields for 2020. With a stable fundamental backdrop, we expect default rates to remain benign in high-yield and bank loans this year.
  • MBS: Although agency mortgage spreads were pressured by both prepayments and higher volatility, they remain attractive.
  • China: Healthy domestic demand and robust stimulus is supportive of growth. We expect stimulus measures to remain in place until signs of economic stabilization appear. Policy actions are likely to be enough to mitigate cyclical slowing.
  • Japan: We expect the economy to grow around 0.5% in 2020 with continuing robust domestic demand and moderately improving external demand.
  • EM: Higher yields combined with weak currency presents an attractive buying opportunity.

Q&A Highlights

  • Geopolitical risk is always present, and we are always cognizant of it. But we choose to look at it with a long-term perspective, weighing the likelihood of whether or not the news of the day could potentially change the fundamental direction of global growth and global inflation.
  • Global demographics are a headwind to growth and a factor that will serve to keep interest rates persistently low.

View the presentation slides.
© Western Asset Management Company, LLC 2025. The information contained in these materials ("the materials") is intended for the exclusive use of the designated recipient ("the recipient"). This information is proprietary and confidential and may contain commercially sensitive information, and may not be copied, reproduced or republished, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Western Asset Management Company ("Western Asset").
Past performance does not predict future returns. These materials should not be deemed to be a prediction or projection of future performance. These materials are intended for investment professionals including professional clients, eligible counterparties, and qualified investors only.
These materials have been produced for illustrative and informational purposes only. These materials contain Western Asset's opinions and beliefs as of the date designated on the materials; these views are subject to change and may not reflect real-time market developments and investment views.
Third party data may be used throughout the materials, and this data is believed to be accurate to the best of Western Asset's knowledge at the time of publication, but cannot be guaranteed. These materials may also contain strategy or product awards or rankings from independent third parties or industry publications which are based on unbiased quantitative and/or qualitative information determined independently by each third party or publication. In some cases, Western Asset may subscribe to these third party's standard industry services or publications. These standard subscriptions and services are available to all asset managers and do not influence rankings or awards in any way.
Investment strategies or products discussed herein may involve a high degree of risk, including the loss of some or all capital. Investments in any products or strategies described in these materials may be volatile, and investors should have the financial ability and willingness to accept such risks.
Unless otherwise noted, investment performance contained in these materials is reflective of a strategy composite. All other strategy data and information included in these materials reflects a representative portfolio which is an account in the composite that Western Asset believes most closely reflects the current portfolio management style of the strategy. Performance is not a consideration in the selection of the representative portfolio. The characteristics of the representative portfolio shown may differ from other accounts in the composite. Information regarding the representative portfolio and the other accounts in the composite are available upon request. Statements in these materials should not be considered investment advice. References, either general or specific, to securities and/or issuers in the materials are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendation to purchase or sell such securities. Employees and/or clients of Western Asset may have a position in the securities or issuers mentioned.
These materials are not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal, tax, investment or other advice. The recipient should consult its own counsel, accountant, investment, tax, and any other advisers for this advice, including economic risks and merits, related to making an investment with Western Asset. The recipient is responsible for observing the applicable laws and regulations of their country of residence.
Founded in 1971, Western Asset Management Company is a global fixed-income investment manager with offices in Pasadena, New York, London, Singapore, Tokyo, Melbourne, São Paulo, Hong Kong, and Zürich. Western Asset is a wholly owned subsidiary of Franklin Resources, Inc. but operates autonomously. Western Asset is comprised of six legal entities across the globe, each with distinct regional registrations: Western Asset Management Company, LLC, a registered Investment Adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission; Western Asset Management Company Ltda. is regulated by Comissão de Valores Mobiliários; Western Asset Management Company Pty Ltd ABN 41 117 767 923 is the holder of the Australian Financial Services License 303160; Western Asset Management Company Pte. Ltd. Co. Reg. No. 200007692R is a holder of a Capital Markets Services License for fund management and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore; Western Asset Management Company Ltd, a registered Financial Instruments Business Operator and regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan; and Western Asset Management Company Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA") (FRN 145930). This communication is intended for distribution to Professional Clients only if deemed to be a financial promotion in the UK as defined by the FCA. This communication may also be intended for certain EEA countries where Western Asset has been granted permission to do so. For the current list of the approved EEA countries please contact Western Asset at +44 (0)20 7422 3000.