skip navigation

By the Numbers

Featuring brief segments of economic analysis from our senior economist Michael Bazdarich, PhD.

The economic analysis we previously featured in By the Numbers is now available on the Western Asset Blog. This page will no longer be updated.


4Q19 GDP Growth a Decent 2.1%, With Lots of Noise in the Components

Real GDP grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2019, so that the compound average of the four quarters of 2019 came in at 2.3%. Inflation as measured by the GDP price index occurred at a 1.5% annualized rate in 4Q19, for a 1.6% average over the four quarters of 2019. (Keep in mind that this is NOT a core inflation rate, but includes price changes for ALL goods produced in the domestic economy.)

The 2.1% 4Q19 rate is not spectacular, but it did come in above some of the recent Wall Street forecasts, and the 2.3% average for all of 2019 is only a slight deceleration from the 2.5% of 2018 and the 2.8% of 2017. Keep in mind that the slowing economy in 2019 looked to be substantial enough to move the Fed from four planned hikes to three actual cuts. Against that backdrop, the reported 0.2% deceleration in growth is quite mild and certainly not suggestive of a budding recession.

The early press reports we have seen this morning attributed the decent 4Q19 performance in large part to a sharp improvement in the foreign trade balance, driven by a plunge in imports. This is somewhat misleading. As we have remarked with respect to the retail sales data, the slower growth in retail sales in 4Q19 appears to us to be linked to the plunge in imports, especially in those coming from China. So, while by itself the trade balance was a big "add" to 4Q19 growth, in reality it was just the "yin" to the weak goods consumption "yang."

There was further offset to the trade balance coming from a mild decline in non-auto inventory investment. Goods have to come from somewhere. If imports decline, boosting GDP by itself, either consumer spending on those goods must decline or the goods must come out of declining inventories, both of which work to offset the boost from imports.

This is exactly what happened within 4Q19 GDP data. A drop in imports does not, by itself, mean a boost in domestic production, and in 4Q19, the sharply lower imports and related improvements in the trade balance were about fully offset by slower growth in goods consumption and an inventory drain.

Meanwhile, the GM strike also affected the GDP data. According to today’s data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the strike-related 4Q19 decline in vehicle production reduced 4Q19 GDP growth by a whopping 0.9%. Then again, a pre-strike boost in vehicle production in 3Q19 increased 3Q19 GDP by about that same amount. On net, then, the vehicle sector was a wash to GDP growth in the second half, but its effects on individual quarters’ growth were quite disparate.

With volatile components like this, it is good to look at an average of growth across a few quarters, and we think the 2.3% reported growth for all of 2019 provides a good description of the state of the economy: slightly slower than in 2017-18, but better than what we saw in 2015-16 and nowhere close to alarmingly slow.

Real GDP Growth
Real GDP Growth
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. As of 31 Dec 19

Michael Bazdarich

Product Specialist/Economist

Mike brings more than 43 years of experience to his position. "By the Numbers" will address economic data releases that are pertinent to a broad range of investors.

Prior to joining the Firm in 2005, Mike ran his own consulting firm, MB Economics. He earned his PhD in Economics at the University of Chicago.

Sign up to receive email updates as new reports are released.

© Western Asset Management Company, LLC 2020. This publication is the property of Western Asset and is intended for the sole use of its clients, consultants, and other intended recipients. It should not be forwarded to any other person. Contents herein should be treated as confidential and proprietary information. This material may not be reproduced or used in any form or medium without express written permission.
Past results are not indicative of future investment results. This publication is for informational purposes only and reflects the current opinions of Western Asset. Information contained herein is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Opinions represented are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security and are subject to change without notice. Statements in this material should not be considered investment advice. Employees and/or clients of Western Asset may have a position in the securities mentioned. This publication has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this information, you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is your responsibility to be aware of and observe the applicable laws and regulations of your country of residence.
Western Asset Management Company Distribuidora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários Limitada is authorised and regulated by Comissão de Valores Mobiliários and Banco Central do Brasil. Western Asset Management Company Pty Ltd ABN 41 117 767 923 is the holder of the Australian Financial Services Licence 303160. Western Asset Management Company Pte. Ltd. Co. Reg. No. 200007692R is a holder of a Capital Markets Services Licence for fund management and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Western Asset Management Company Ltd is a registered Financial Instruments Business Operator and regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan. Western Asset Management Company Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). This communication is intended for distribution to Professional Clients only if deemed to be a financial promotion in the UK and EEA countries as defined by the FCA or MiFID II rules.