Emerging Markets
The principal thesis for investing in emerging markets should focus on the improved flexibility and stronger balance-sheet position that most of these nations now enjoy. It should not focus on the historical emphasis on higher expected growth rates in emerging markets relative to the developed world — a thesis that loses relevance in a potential scenario of slowing global growth. Research Analyst Robert Abad introduces a new paper explaining the need for a new thesis as the roles of emerging markets and developed economies undergo fundamental changes.
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By Robert Abad and Matt Graves
September 2010
The landscape of the global sovereign debt market has changed drastically since the problems in Greece first arose earlier this year. Markets have been incredibly resilient in the face of these issues, with the effectiveness of Europe's response to the crisis far exceeding what were fairly dire expectations. However, it was the emergence of these problems at the sovereign level that served to highlight a number of risks that had, to that point, been underestimated.
Outlook
Investors continue to be attracted to emerging markets as evidenced by record inflows into the asset class and the markets' strong performance. Fundamentals have been very positive, particularly when compared with many developed countries. Economic growth has been stronger, debt levels have been lower and fiscal balances have been stronger.
Emerging market currencies have generally been strong on the back of these positive flows. Many emerging market central banks are concerned that this appreciation will negatively affect trade balances. This concern has led many countries to implement or consider methods to limit the appreciation. Some central banks are reluctant to consider raising rates to contain inflation, fearing that this would further appreciate respective currencies. Market volatility will likely be elevated until policy-makers can find a coordinated solution to this issue.
In terms of strategy, Russia remains an overweight, but we have reduced the size of the position as spreads have tightened. We have also been constructive on the fundamentals and relative valuations in Brazil and Colombia. Despite negative fundamentals, we also have slight overweights relative to our benchmark in Argentina and Venezuela due to very cheap valuations and the belief that there is an underlying ability and willingness to remain current on the debt. We have a significant underweight in the Philippines due to fiscal concerns and poor valuations. In terms of local markets, we continue to maintain positions in Brazil and Indonesia due to strong fundamentals and a positive outlook on the rates and currency.
We continue to be constructive on emerging market corporates with a focus on strategic companies that are critical to their respective countries' economies. We have reduced cash levels or swapped out of existing holdings as opportunities have arisen in the new issue market. This has generally improved the quality of the corporate holdings in the portfolio. Recent additions include Suzano, a Brazilian paper company, and Banco Del Estado, the state-owned Chilean bank.
Continuing with our cautious view of the current state of the world, we are avoiding less liquid and smaller sovereigns like Ukraine in the near term. We also remain selective on local currency exposure due to the uncertain global environment.
August 2011
Senior Research Analyst Robert Abad describes recent developments in the emerging market space, the risks that investors need to be aware of, and why Western Asset is well positioned to benefit from the changing dynamics within this market.
Emerging Markets Team
Western Asset's Emerging Markets Team consists of eight key investment professionals and is led by Mr. Keith Gardner. The Team is responsible for setting strategy and implementing that strategy across all emerging market mandates. Matthew Duda, CFA, heads the credit effort within the Emerging Markets team. The credit effort includes four research analysts and one trader. Biographies for all participants of the Emerging Markets Team are included above. Western Asset's Emerging Markets team draws heavily upon input from its investment offices in São Paulo, Singapore and London.







